February 27, 2020 — At the start of the year, the economic mood was tending toward the optimistic. True, growth had slowed a bit in 2019. US GDP grew 2.3 % in 2019, down from 2.9 % in 2018. World growth was weak in 2019 as well: 2.9% according to IMF estimates, down from 3.6 % the year before. Still, there had been no recession. And forecasts as recently as January called for world growth to rebound in 2020.
Global recession?
Now, just since January, there is new reason for pessimism. Recessions are exceedingly difficult to forecast and the wise economist avoids trying. But the odds of a global recession have risen dramatically. The reason is the coronavirus that originated in Wuhan, technically named COVID-19.