June 13, 2019 — Here in Cambridge, we are reeling from the passing of Martin Feldstein on Tuesday.
Tag Archives: NBER
Has Italy Really “Gone Back Into Recession”?
Italians and the world have now been told that their economy slipped back into recession in the first half of 2014. This characterization is based on the criterion for recession that is standard in Europe and most countries: two successive quarters of negative growth. But if the criteria for determining recessions in European countries were similar to those used in the United States, this new downturn would be a continuation of the 2012 recession in Italy, not a new one. A common-sense look at the graph below suggests the same conclusion: the 2013 “recovery” is barely visible.
One Recession or Many? Double-Dip Downturns in Europe
The recent release of a revised set of GDP statistics by Britain’s Office for National Statistics showed that growth had not quite, as previously thought, been negative for two consecutive quarters in the winter of 2011-12. The point, as it was reported, was that a UK recession (a second dip after the Great Recession of 2008-09) was now erased from the history books — and that the Conservative government would take a bit of satisfaction from this fact. But it should not.