Nov. 24, 2024 –When the US election was called for Donald Trump the night of November 5, the stock market rose but the bond market fell. The yield on 10-year US government bonds increased from 4.3 % to 4.4%, where it remained 10 days later. The long-term rate had been below 4.0 % in September. The combination – stock market up but bond market down – strongly suggests that the news of Trump’s victory was seen as implying higher government budget deficit and debt numbers in the future.
Dec. 13, 2018 — When President George H.W. Bush was laid to rest earlier this month, the remembrances appropriately remarked on his general decency and competence. In public commentary, the encomiums tend to be followed by a “but.” For journalists and historians, it is “but he was only a one-term president.” He lost the election of 1992, in part because of the recession of 1990-91. For members of his own political party, the “but” is, “but he broke with the legacy of Ronald Reagan and with his own ‘no new taxes’ pledge.” They have always blamed his failure to win re-election on that perceived betrayal.
(Aug. 26, 2016) This year’s US presidential election campaign differs radically from past patterns, including in the departure of the Republican nominee from many of the policy positions traditionally taken by his party. Examples are his lack of support for international trade, military alliances, or the institution of marriage. But when Donald Trump released some positions on tax policy recently, the differences with Hillary Clinton’s proposals fell very much along usual party lines. His is the kind of tax policy that has long been favored by Republican presidential candidates and congressmen: tax cuts that overwhelmingly benefit the rich and that are not accompanied with any plans to pay for them.