Tag Archives: eichengreen

Dispatches from the Currency Wars

Share Button

The value of the yen has fallen sharply since November, owing to the monetary component of Japan’s efforts to jump-start its economy (“Abenomics”).  Thus the issue of currency wars is expected to feature on the agenda at the G-8’s upcoming summit in Enniskillen, UK, June 17-18.

The phrase “currency wars” is catchy.  But does it have genuine analytical content?   It is another way of saying “competitive devaluation.”  To use the language of IMF Article IV(1) iii, it is what happens when countries are “manipulating exchange rates…to gain an unfair competitive advantage over other members…” To use the language of the 1930s, this manipulation would be a kind of beggar-thy-neighbor policy, with each country seeking to shift net exports toward its own goods at the expense of its neighbors. read more

Share Button

The Rise of the Renminbi as International Currency: Historical Precedents

Share Button

All of a sudden, the renminbi is being touted as the next big international currency.   Just in the last year or two, the Chinese currency has begun to internationalize along a number of dimensions.   RMB bank desposits are now available in Hong Kong.  A RMB bond market has grown rapidly there as well, with the issuers including major multinationals such as McDonald’s.   Some of China’s international trade is now invoiced in the currency.  Foreign central banks have been able to hold RMB since August 2010, with Malaysia going first.  read more

Share Button

The euro’s challenge to the dollar does not depend on tipping

Share Button

My friend Barry Eichengreen, together with Marc Flandreau, has written a column in today’s Financial Times, that appears under the headline “Why the euro is unlikely to eclipse the dollar.” The body of the article is a claim that network externalities and tipping points are not important, or perhaps that they once were but no longer are.

The first two steps of their argument are:
(1) a multiple-currency system is the historical norm. The dollar-denominated system that we have experienced for more than 60 years is an aberration, so network externalities (aren’t) important.
(2) The dollar surpassed the pound in the 1924-25, not in 1948, so lags and tipping phenomena are not important. read more

Share Button