(Jan. 16, 2017) At the end of his time in office Barack Obama merits an enumeration of some of his many accomplishments. The recollection should start as he started, on January 20, 2009: the pilot taking the cockpit just when the plane was in an uncontrolled dive.
Tag Archives: 2009
Recap: Obama Recovery, Emerging Markets & 2012 Crash
A recent video interview from Project Syndicate recaps some of my recent op-eds. It covers the following territory:
- 1975-81: 7 fat years (“recycling petrodollars”)
- 1982: crash (the international debt crisis)
- 1983-1989: 7 lean years (the “Lost Decade” in Latin America)
- 1990-1996: 7 fat years (Emerging Market boom)
- 1997: crash (the East Asia crisis)
- 1997-2003: 7 lean years (currency crises spread globally)
- 2003-2011: 7 fat years (the triumph of the BRICs)
- 2012: ?
The 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis: Lessons for Country Vulnerability
After the currency crises of 1994-2001, and especially the East Asia crises of 1997-98, a lot of research investigated what countries could do to protect themselves against a future repeat. More importantly, policy makers in emerging markets took some serious measures. Some countries abandoned exchange rate targets and began to float. Many accumulated high levels of foreign exchange reserves. Many moved away from dollar-denominated debt, toward other kinds of capital inflow that would be less vulnerable to currency mismatch, such as domestic currency debt or Foreign Direct Investment. Some instituted Collective Action Clauses in their debt contracts to facilitate otherwise-messy restructuring of debt in the event of a severe negative shock. A few raised reserve requirements or otherwise tightened prudential banking regulations (clearly not enough, in retrospect). And so on.