“False imbalance” in coverage of Columbia’s president

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April 25, 2024 —  I have in the past identified a media phenomenon that I called the syndrome of “False Imbalance.”   No, not “False Balance,” where the journalist takes an issue that is in truth unbalanced and pretends it is balanced. In a misguided attempt to sound impartial, he or she presents an unsupported viewpoint (say, climate change denial) on equal basis with a factual one.

False Imbalance takes a debate that is in truth balanced and pretends it is imbalanced.  A leader is described as under widespread attack, without indicating that half the attacks are coming from one direction and half from the opposite direction.  The reader is given no way of knowing that the public figure may be steering a path that carefully balances the pros and cons. read more

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The Historical Puzzle of US Economic Performance under Democrats vs. Republicans

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March 28, 2024 — We have heard much about the puzzle that US economic performance under President Joe Biden has been much stronger than voters perceive it to be.  But the current episode is just one instance of a bigger historical puzzle:  the US economy has since World War II consistently done better under Democratic presidents than under Republican presidents.  This fact is even less widely known, including among Democratic voters, than the truth about Biden’s term.  Indeed, some poll results suggest that more Americans believe the reverse, that Republican presidents are better stewards of the economy than Democrats. read more

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Six Explanations for Misperceptions Regarding the Strong Economy

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February 25, 2024 — By now, quite a variety of explanations have been offered for the puzzle that the unusually good state of the US economy has not been reflected in public opinion surveys, and especially not in polls regarding President Joe Biden’s bid for re-election in November.  At least six hypotheses have been put forward regarding the performance-perception gap.

Perception biases

  1. Some charge that the official statistics must be wrong, out-of-touch, failing to capture the true state of the economy. This hypothesis is itself wrong.  While any given number is subject to measurement error, the evidence from a wide variety of statistics, most of them gathered separately, has been overwhelming.  They tell a very positive story, whether one looks at the measures of economic growth (GDP), strength in the labor market (jobs created or unemployment), or inflation (either CPI or PCE, and either headline or core).

Media commentary over the last two years has emphasized that the economy and job market have been slowing down.  They usually fail to note that, although this is true relative to the breakneck growth of the year that immediately followed the 2020  pandemic shutdown, the current rates of expansion of GDP and employment are above their post-2000 averages. read more

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