Will the Coronavirus Lead to Global Recession?

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February 27, 2020 —  At the start of the year, the economic mood was tending toward the optimistic.  True, growth had slowed a bit in 2019. US GDP grew 2.3 % in 2019, down from 2.9 % in 2018.  World growth was weak in 2019 as well: 2.9% according to IMF estimates, down from 3.6 % the year before.  Still, there had been no recession.  And forecasts as recently as January called for world growth to rebound in 2020.

Global recession?

Now, just since January, there is new reason for pessimism.  Recessions are exceedingly difficult to forecast and the wise economist avoids trying.  But the odds of a global recession have risen dramatically.  The reason is the coronavirus that originated in Wuhan, technically named COVID-19. read more

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Carbon Prices, not Monetary Policies, Are the Tools to Fight Climate Change

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January 23, 2020 —  Everyone agrees that Climate Change is at the top of the list of most important policy issues that we face – everyone, with a few exceptions such as Trump supporters who call it a hoax.  Identifying the problem, however, is not much use unless we also identify the appropriate tools to address the problem.

Financial institutions

In my own field of specialization, central bankers have caught Climate Change fever.  Perhaps the first was Governor Mark Carney — recently departed from the Bank of England.   Christine Lagarde – newly arrived at the ECB from the International Monetary Fund —  has declared the global environment to be “mission critical” for her institutions. read more

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Most important global event of 2020? The US election

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January 1, 2020 — An interview question from Chosun Ilbo (the #1 Korean newspaper) for the New Year:   Which political event of 2020 should concern us the most? (E.g., the U.S. presidential election, the geopolitical crisis on the Korean Peninsula, Brexit…?)

My response:

Perhaps I am too US-centric.  But out of all events in 2020, I see November’s presidential election in the United States as warranting the greatest concern, not just for my home country but for the world.

The global system read more

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