Get Ready for “Reverse Currency Wars”

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May 28, 2022  — The US dollar is up 12 % against the euro over the last year.  Having moved from 1.21 $/€ in May 2021 to 1.07 $/€ today, the exchange rate seems to be approaching one-to-one parity for the first time.  Europeans are not happy about it. If you think that prices for oil and other commodities are high now in terms of dollars, you should see what they look like in terms of euros.  Get ready for “reverse currency wars.”

The regular sort of currency wars featured countries feeling aggrieved that their trading partners were deliberately pursuing policies to weaken their own currencies.  The feared motive would be gaining unfair advantage in international trade.  The original phrase “currency wars” was a colorful description of what international economists had (more informatively) long called “competitive devaluations” or, when exchange rates float, “competitive depreciation.” read more

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Energy Policies Can Be Both Geopolitical & Green

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April 29, 2022 — Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has amplified the importance of national security objectives when Western nations formulate energy policy.  At the same time, they should not take their eye off the ball of reducing environmental damage and, in particular, slowing down greenhouse gas emissions.  Both goals, geopolitical and environmental, are urgent.  The national security and environmental objective should be evaluated together, rather than via separate “stove pipes.”

Some talk as if the two goals are necessarily in conflict — because, for example, fighting back against Moscow by boosting domestic US oil production would contribute to air pollution and global climate change.  But there are plenty of steps that would benefit the environment and simultaneously further the geopolitical objective.  The most obvious steps, especially for the EU, are sanctions that cut demand for imports of fossil fuels from Russia. read more

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Why is the Nobel Prize sometimes awarded to economists with opposing viewpoints?

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April 14, 2022  —   Question from The International Economy:  Economics is the only field in which people can share a Nobel Prize for arriving at the complete opposite conclusion, something that arguably actually happened.  Should the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences Be Put on Hold? —

My response:

It is true that the Prize in Economics in Memory of Alfred Nobel has been awarded in the same year to economists representing opposite viewpoints.  Not just once, but three times.

In 2013, the topic was stock markets. The winners included both Eugene Fama, for his work on the Efficient Markets Hypothesis (EMH), and Robert Shiller, for his rejection of the EMH in favor of the existence of bubbles, excessive volatility, and investor behavior that departs from rational expectations. read more

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