March 26, 2018 — Caijing Magazine asked me the following questions about US steel tariffs on 3/14.
Answer: I see trade wars lurking around the corner. They are not yet here for sure. But recent developments are very worrying.
Of course it will not be easy for the US to win a trade war. This is one of the most foolish things Trump has said
March 9, 2018 — PBS NewsHour asked some of us six questions about the new tariffs. My responses appear below. The others’ are at: “Trump’s tariffs will do more harm than good, experts say,” March 8.
PBS: Would President Trump’s proposed tariffs on steel and aluminum imports help create more jobs in the United States, as he argues?
JF: The import tariffs are likely to create a few jobs specifically in the US firms that make steel and aluminum. The important point, however, is that such positive effects will be far outweighed by negative effects on other sectors.
January 19, 2018 — President Trump and the Republicans succeeded last month in passing their big tax cut. It may not have many of the desirable attributes of true tax reform (equity, efficiency, bi-partisanship, revenue-neutrality, or cyclical timing); but it is major legislation, as promised. What about that other major Trump promise, to cut the US trade deficit? The tax cut is virtually certain to raise the budget deficit and in turn to raise – not lower – the current account deficit. Call it the Return of the Infamous Twin Deficits. As when Ronald Reagan cut taxes in 1981-83 or when George W. Bush cut taxes in 2001 and 2003.