Category Archives: trade

Energy Policies Can Be Both Geopolitical & Green

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April 29, 2022 — Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has amplified the importance of national security objectives when Western nations formulate energy policy.  At the same time, they should not take their eye off the ball of reducing environmental damage and, in particular, slowing down greenhouse gas emissions.  Both goals, geopolitical and environmental, are urgent.  The national security and environmental objective should be evaluated together, rather than via separate “stove pipes.”

Some talk as if the two goals are necessarily in conflict — because, for example, fighting back against Moscow by boosting domestic US oil production would contribute to air pollution and global climate change.  But there are plenty of steps that would benefit the environment and simultaneously further the geopolitical objective.  The most obvious steps, especially for the EU, are sanctions that cut demand for imports of fossil fuels from Russia. read more

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The G20 agenda, as the pandemic continues

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August 28, 2021 — Italy hosts the G20 this year.  The 2021 Summit of the Heads of Government will take place in Rome in October. Officials of member countries, including the finance ministers and central bank governors, are preparing.

The G20 meeting will come at a time of great uncertainty as concerns the health and economic effects of the pandemic, midway through its 2nd year.  Although the mechanisms of international cooperation have been badly bruised by events of recent years, they are more important than ever, in light of the interconnectedness across nations that the pandemic so vividly demonstrates. read more

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Will the Coronavirus Lead to Global Recession?

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February 27, 2020 —  At the start of the year, the economic mood was tending toward the optimistic.  True, growth had slowed a bit in 2019. US GDP grew 2.3 % in 2019, down from 2.9 % in 2018.  World growth was weak in 2019 as well: 2.9% according to IMF estimates, down from 3.6 % the year before.  Still, there had been no recession.  And forecasts as recently as January called for world growth to rebound in 2020.

Global recession?

Now, just since January, there is new reason for pessimism.  Recessions are exceedingly difficult to forecast and the wise economist avoids trying.  But the odds of a global recession have risen dramatically.  The reason is the coronavirus that originated in Wuhan, technically named COVID-19. read more

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