January 1, 2020 — An interview question from Chosun Ilbo (the #1 Korean newspaper) for the New Year: Which political event of 2020 should concern us the most? (E.g., the U.S. presidential election, the geopolitical crisis on the Korean Peninsula, Brexit…?)
My response:
Perhaps I am too US-centric. But out of all events in 2020, I see November’s presidential election in the United States as warranting the greatest concern, not just for my home country but for the world.
The global system
August 12, 2019 –The US-China trade war heated up in the first week of August. On August 1, Donald Trump abruptly announced plans to impose a 10 % tariff on the remaining $300 billion of imports from China that he had not already hit with earlier tariffs. The Chinese authorities then allowed their currency, the renminbi (RMB), to fall in value below the highly visible line of 7.0 RMB/$. The US Administration promptly reacted on August 5 by naming China a “currency manipulator” — the first time any country had been given that designation in 25 years. Pundits declared a currency war, while investors responded by immediately sending stock markets down.
August 5, 2019 — The China’s People’s Daily in an interview had three questions about the US threat of August 1 to apply tariffs on the remainder of Chinese goods.
JF Answer:
Yes, the additional tariffs — 10% on the remaining $ 300 billion of imports from China — will clearly raise the price that American consumers have to pay for many items. This is one reason I am concerned.
2. It seems the trade war between the two countries will not end soon. Do you see any evidence that it’s having more impact on global economy?