Three areas that President Obama will have to address during his term in office are the recession, energy and the environment, and the long-run fiscal outlook. The recession is the most urgent. But the long-run fiscal outlook will be the most difficult. Social Security and Medicare would have made addressing the long-run fiscal outlook difficult in any case. (Did you know that the first baby-boomers are starting to draw Social Security this year?) The Bush tax cuts of 2001 and 2003 made it worse. The rapid spending increases of the last eight years made it still worse. The financial crisis and recession are now making it still worse. To be clear, fiscal stimulus today is appropriate, given the weak economy. The trick is to combine it with the minimum damage to future budgets.
Category Archives: oil
Commodity Prices, Again: Are Speculators to Blame?
In the 1955 movie version of East of Eden, the legendary James Dean plays Cal. Like Cain in Genesis, he competes with his brother for the love of his father, a moralizing patriarch. Cal “goes long” in the market for beans, in anticipation of an increase in demand if the United States enters World War I. Sure enough, the price of beans goes sky high, Cal makes a bundle, and offers it to his father to make up money lost in another venture. But the father is morally offended by Cal’s speculation, not wanting to profit from others’ misfortunes, and angrily tells him that he will have to “give the money back.” Cal has been the agent of Adam Smith’s famous invisible hand: By betting on his hunch about the future, he has contributed to upward pressure on the price of beans in the present, thereby increasing the supply so that more is available precisely when needed (by the British Army). The movie even treats us to a scene where Cal watches the beans grow in a farmer’s field, something real-life speculators seldom get to do.
Among politicians, pundits, and the public, many currently are trying to blame speculators for the recent boom in oil and other mineral and agricultural products. Are the soaring prices their fault?
Offshoring is a Dubious Policy, When the Question is Oil Drilling
President Bush yesterday eliminated a 27-year executive moratorium on off-shore oil drilling (NYT, 7/15/2008, p.A13), a move also supported by presidential candidate John McCain.
The Democrats responded:
(1) that this was an election-year stunt,
(2) that the move would be too small to make a difference
(3) that it would bring no downward pressure on oil prices at the crucial short-term horizon, and
(4) that it would not ultimately help move the country in the direction of energy security.
The Democrats have the right answer, but are perhaps giving the wrong reasons.