Two decades ago, many thought the lesson of the 1980s had been that Japan’s variant of capitalism was the best model, that other countries around the world should and would follow it. The Japanese model quickly lost its luster in the 1990s.
One decade ago, many thought that the lesson of the 1990s had been that the US variant of capitalism was the best model, that other countries should and would follow. The American model in turn lost its attractiveness in the decade of the 2000s.
As Chile’s President Michelle Bachelet prepares to hand over power to her newly elected successor, she remains extraordinarily popular. It is worth reflecting on the fiscal aspects of her term in office, as Chile has important lessons for other countries struggling with fundamental long-term budget problems, which includes a lot of countries right now.
As recently as June 2008, President Bachelet and her Finance Minister, Andres Velasco, had the lowest approval ratings of any President or Finance Minister, respectively, since the return of democracy to Chile. (See graphs below.) There may have been multiple reasons for this, but perhaps the most important was popular resentment that the two had resisted intense pressure to spend the receipts from copper exports, which at the time were soaring along with world copper prices. One year later, in the summer of 2009, the pair had the highest approval ratings of any President and Finance Minister since the return of democracy. Why the change?
Nicholas Kristof’s column in the New York Times today, “Better Roses than Cocaine,” says it all. There is no good reason for the US Congress to continue to hold up the free trade agreement that the Administration has negotiated with Colombia.
Free trade with Colombia can’t have anything to do with loss of US jobs: Colombia’s exports already enter the US duty-free. Rather, the Free Trade Agreement would reduce remaining Colombian barriers to imports from the US. It could contribute (a bit) to a surge in US exports worldwide, which in turn could once again become the engine of US growth that it was in the 1990s.