Category Archives: investing

Retrospective on the First Year of Trump’s Second Term

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Washington DC, January 11, 2026 — What a difference a year makes.  When Donald Trump took the oath of office for the second time, almost 12 months ago, his supporters and opponents alike were expecting a set of policies very different from what actually unfolded.

After the November 2024 election, the mood of the American business community began to shift.  Some businesspeople had all along harbored doubts about Trump’s anti-globalization campaign.  But overall confidence began to fall early in the new year when they came face to face with some of the possible consequences of cutting the US economy off from international trade and migration — the prospects of sharply increased prices of imported products and worker shortages in some sectors. read more

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Can Musk find $2 trillion in spending cuts for Trump?

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Nov. 24, 2024 –When the US election was called for Donald Trump the night of November 5, the stock market rose but the bond market fell.  The yield on 10-year US government bonds increased from 4.3 % to 4.4%, where it remained 10 days later.  The long-term rate had been below 4.0 % in September.  The combination – stock market up but bond market down – strongly suggests that the news of Trump’s victory was seen as implying higher government budget deficit and debt numbers in the future. read more

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Why are equities, gold, and the dollar surging?

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July 30, 2024 — The US stock market is on a tear.  Since the start of this year, January 2024, the Dow Jones , S&P 500, and NASDAQ have each repeatedly set new all-time records.  Indeed, the trend in stocks has been strongly upward for the last two or three years.   For instance, the S & P 500 is about 40 % above where it was  in January 2021, when Joe Biden became President [43 % higher].

The price of gold has also shown a strong upward trend, reaching $2,470 an ounce on July 17, the highest in history.  Why are these assets so elevated? read more

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