Category Archives: inflation

A Resilience Case for International Trade

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July 3, 2022Some new problems have afflicted the economy in the last year.  Two examples come from the US:  blockages in supply chain logistics and a critical shortage in infant milk formula. One problem applies to the EU even more than to the US: energy scarcity due to sanctions against Russian fossil fuel exports.  And one applies almost everywhere: inflation.

Some have associated these four problems with what is said to be excessive dependence on international trade, that is, with globalization.  Consequently, deglobalization, fragmentation, reshoring, friend-shoring, decoupling, and resilience have become popular buzzwords.  The feeling is that individual countries would not have been so exposed to shocks if they had been more self-sufficient. read more

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No, the US is Not in Recession

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A shorter version of this commentary appeared in Barron’s magazine, June 8, 2022. For a video interview, see BNN/Bloomberg, June 8.

June 9, 2022 — US consumer sentiment, by one measure, is at its lowest level since 2011. More Americans say they hear mostly negative news about the economy than hear positive news, or a balance of positive and negative.  Most remarkably, 57% tell pollsters they believe we are currently in recession versus only 21% who do not.

So, is the US economy already in a recession?  No.  People are unhappy with inflation, which has recently been running 8.3 % [CPI change, from April 2021 to April 2022].  That is the highest since 1982.  But inflation is not recession. Recession is defined as a significant decline in economic activity.  Economic activity is not falling. Quite the contrary: it has been booming.  It is worth spelling out the evidence. read more

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Fighting the Last Inflation War

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February 27, 2022 — When Fed Chairman William McChesney Martin delivered his famous line about central banks, his key point was that it is their job to take away the punch bowl just when the party really gets going, rather than waiting until revelers have turned drunken and raucous. In the aftermath of the 1970s inflation, it became an item of faith that monetary authorities shouldn’t wait until elevated inflation shows its face, before reining in an overheating economy.  They are currently developing a renewed appreciation for the wisdom of this old metaphor. read more

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