Category Archives: financial crisis

“Why Did Economists Get it So Wrong?” — Eight who got parts of it right

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The Queen of England during the summer asked economists why no one had predicted the credit crunch and recession.   Paul Krugman points out that, inasmuch as economists can almost never predict the timing of recessions (and don’t claim to be able to), the real questions are worse.  The real questions are, rather how macroeconomists (most) could have gotten it so wrong as to believe that:
(i) a severe recession was not even looming ahead as a potential danger, and
(ii) a breakdown of many of the world’s most liquid financial markets, in New York and London, was impossible to imagine. read more

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Top UK regulator supports transactions tax to shrink financial sector

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A year ago, it occurred to me that if the popular blood lust against the financial sector was to be given vent, one could do worse than adopt a small (but global) tax on financial transactions.    On August 27 it was reported that Adair Turner, head of the UK Financial Services Authority, had come out in support of just such an idea, arguing that the financial sector is too large.   The Financial Times editorializes against the proposal, pointing out the importance of the sector to Britain, and arguing that “bonus-bashing is a distraction.”  Willem Buiter is with Turner in believing that the financial sector is too large, but views the transactions tax as the wrong policy tool for the job. read more

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An Evaluation of the First 200 Days of Obama Economics

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Friday marks 200 days in office for President Obama.   “How has he done?” asks Fortune.

The first thing to say is that Barack Obama took over the presidency at an extremely difficult time. A variety of analogies suggest themselves: He is Harry Houdini who has been thrown in the river, in a straitjacket, with chains wrapped around him. Or he has taken over as the captain of a ship with a rotting hull, while the ship is under attack in a hurricane. To capture the state of the economy, perhaps the best metaphor is that Obama took over as pilot of an airplane in the middle of a steep dive. For a president precedent, he is Lincoln, who takes office as the South secedes. Or he is Roosevelt, who takes office at the depth of the Great Depression. read more

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