Category Archives: exchange rates

The Euro at Ten: Time to Assess

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January 1, 2009, is the tenth birthday of the euro.  On this occasion, everyone has been taking stock.   The record of the euro shows both pluses and minuses. Looking back, the euro has in many ways been more successful than predicted by the skeptics — many of them American economists.  (The Europeans love to quote Martin Feldstein as having predicted that EMU could lead to civil war.)  The historic transition to a monetary union among 11 countries in 1999 went smoothly; the euro instantly became the world’s number two international currency; and the officials of the European Central Bank (ECB) have from the beginning worked as citizens of Europe rather than as representatives of home constituencies.  After a rocky start, the euro has achieved a strong value; the ECB has achieved a strong reputation (the tradition of the Bundesbank has not been diluted as feared); and new members to the East have achieved membership in the club.  Slovakia becomes the 16th country to join, on January 1. read more

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The Unwinding of the Carry Trade Has Finally Hit Currencies

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Why has the yen strengthened so much this week, even though the Japanese stock market has plummeted?  The financial media have largely got this one right:   the answer is unwinding of the carry trade, and the associated flight to quality, which means flight to yen and dollar (cash and treasury bills).

 

This was to be expected.  It is an unseemly tooting of ones’ own horn, but — earlier this year I wrote in an article in the Milken Institute Review (vol. 10, no. 1, pages 38-45)

“The traditional pattern is most clear with the carry from the yen to the euro:  it has been predictably profitable for the last five years, and this will predictably end soon, as the yen reverses its depreciation against the euro.” read more

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The euro’s challenge to the dollar does not depend on tipping

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My friend Barry Eichengreen, together with Marc Flandreau, has written a column in today’s Financial Times, that appears under the headline “Why the euro is unlikely to eclipse the dollar.” The body of the article is a claim that network externalities and tipping points are not important, or perhaps that they once were but no longer are.

The first two steps of their argument are:
(1) a multiple-currency system is the historical norm. The dollar-denominated system that we have experienced for more than 60 years is an aberration, so network externalities (aren’t) important.
(2) The dollar surpassed the pound in the 1924-25, not in 1948, so lags and tipping phenomena are not important. read more

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