January 31, 2023 — The US federal debt hit its legal limit, $31.4 trillion, on Thursday, January 19, 2023. Everyone feels that they have seen this movie before: there is no need for alarm because the politicians will strike a deal at the last moment. But this time, the movie could well end tragically, as a result of the intransigence of Republicans in Congress. It is likely that they will refuse to raise the debt ceiling until after they have driven the car over the cliff. This could mean a once unthinkable default by the US government. Unfortunately, letting them do that may be the best strategy available to President Joe Biden when the time comes.
Category Archives: budget
Republicans fight deficits only when a Democrat is President
January 28, 2021 — High among the many priorities of newly-inaugurated US President Joe Biden are the challenges of an economy that appeared to be slowing down as the new year started, with the latest employment numbers looking bleak. A fourth-quarter slowdown in the US recovery from the horrendous second quarter could be attributed to the expiration of some of the bipartisan stimulus programs that were passed by Congress in March of 2020, or to the third wave of Covid-19, or to both factors. Even if Covid-19 abates during the course of 2021 and pent-up consumer demand then kicks in, the US faces challenges right now, in such areas as schools, infrastructure investment, state and local finances, and especially the fight against the pandemic itself.
It’s Finally Time for German Fiscal Stimulus
September 30, 2019 — As long as the German economy was doing well, as it was during the recovery from the 2008 global financial crisis, there existed a coherent rationale for German fiscal austerity. The national commitment to budget discipline was enshrined in the 2009 “debt brake,” which limits the federal structural deficit to 0.35% of GDP, and by the 2011 “schwarze Null” (that is, “black zero”) policy of fully balancing the budget. Indeed Angela Merkel’s government proudly achieved a balanced budget in 2012 and surpluses in 2014-18.