Category Archives: Biden

BEA revision confirms no recession in 2022

Share Button

BEA revision confirms no recession in 2022

September 27, 2024 — The NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee is the official  arbiter of recessions in the US economy, even though most other countries use the rule of two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.  Critics sometimes question this practice, arguing, first, that it unnecessarily delays the determination of the turning points and, second, that it substitutes the subjective judgment of a group of unelected elite professors for the objectivity of the two-quarters rule. read more

Share Button

Why are equities, gold, and the dollar surging?

Share Button

July 30, 2024 — The US stock market is on a tear.  Since the start of this year, January 2024, the Dow Jones , S&P 500, and NASDAQ have each repeatedly set new all-time records.  Indeed, the trend in stocks has been strongly upward for the last two or three years.   For instance, the S & P 500 is about 40 % above where it was  in January 2021, when Joe Biden became President [43 % higher].

The price of gold has also shown a strong upward trend, reaching $2,470 an ounce on July 17, the highest in history.  Why are these assets so elevated? read more

Share Button

The Historical Puzzle of US Economic Performance under Democrats vs. Republicans

Share Button

March 28, 2024 — We have heard much about the puzzle that US economic performance under President Joe Biden has been much stronger than voters perceive it to be.  But the current episode is just one instance of a bigger historical puzzle:  the US economy has since World War II consistently done better under Democratic presidents than under Republican presidents.  This fact is even less widely known, including among Democratic voters, than the truth about Biden’s term.  Indeed, some poll results suggest that more Americans believe the reverse, that Republican presidents are better stewards of the economy than Democrats. read more

Share Button