May 11, 2020 — This interview by Associated Press is the basis of quotes in a story today: “Risk of reopening US economy too fast: A W-shaped recovery.”
- AP: To what extent is the push to reopen the economy making a W-shaped recovery more likely?
JF: I believe that the push to reopen the economy is making a W-shaped recovery very much more likely.
- AP: What should we be doing to produce the best economic outcome?
JF: Widespread reopening should wait for certain conditions to be met. The conditions include:
- a sustained decline in mortality rates (not just the attainment of a peak);
- the easy availability of frequent testing (in reality, not just as a White House claim);
- and perhaps ultimately the discovery and testing of a vaccine and/or treatment (which will take time).
- AP: At this point what type of recovery do you see as most likely?
JF: Unfortunately, I would guess that a W-shaped pattern is the most likely, as premature withdrawal of government measures leads to relapses in health of the population and health of the economy.