If I had to guess, we are not likely to see some of the more outrageous proposals from Mr. Trump’s campaign enacted.
o He will not build a big beautiful new wall along the length of the border, and Mexico certainly wouldn’t pay for it if he did.
o We won’t see a ban on Muslim immigrants, which would violate longstanding bedrock American principles.
o We won’t see deportation of eleven million undocumented immigrants. But he will likely end Obama’s Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, which granted temporary work permits to many “dreamers.”
o My best guess is that he won’t in fact tear up NAFTA or raise tariffs as widely as he has said. I hope this is not just wishful thinking.
o Similarly, I don’t think he will tear up NATO or our other alliances, as he seemed at times during the campaign to suggest. Nor the Geneva Convention. Even Mr. Trump has to confront at some point how drastic would be the consequences or this sort of destruction of the global order.
But it is likely that he and the Republican Congress will, as he promised, take some steps to roll back the biggest accomplishments of the first part of the Obama Administration. Number one is a rolling back of Obamacare (going beyond the damage that Republicans have done since the beginning by chipping away at the legislation). It will be interesting to see the political reaction if people start losing their health insurance.
Number two is a dismantling of the Dodd-Frank financial regulation, which was enacted after the financial crisis of 2007-09. The Republicans will give banks and other financial institutions a freer hand.
They will also roll back competition policy and environmental regulation, especially regarding emissions of greenhouse gases.
And of course they will seek to appoint conservative justices to the Supreme Court. Logically, the Democrats could try to block such appointments in the same way that the Republicans in Congress refused to hold hearings on Barack Obama’s nominee for the Court (and otherwise blocked almost everything that the President tried to do). But they probably won’t.
We are about to see what life is like when the Republicans hold all branches of government. It will be interesting to see if working Americans will blame them for setbacks.
[A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate Nov. 9. Comments can be posted there.]