BEA revision confirms no recession in 2022

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BEA revision confirms no recession in 2022

September 27, 2024 — The NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee is the official  arbiter of recessions in the US economy, even though most other countries use the rule of two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.  Critics sometimes question this practice, arguing, first, that it unnecessarily delays the determination of the turning points and, second, that it substitutes the subjective judgment of a group of unelected elite professors for the objectivity of the two-quarters rule. read more

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What we now know about Jimmy Carter’s presidency

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September 27, 2024 — Jimmy Carter turns 100 on October 1.  His presidency has always been underestimated.  A few of his accomplishments, like the Camp David Accords, are well-known.  But his legacy has been hurt by misperception of some specific developments of those years, 1977-1981.  This is particularly true when viewed in light of new information that did not come out until more recently.

Consider policy in three areas: (1) deregulation, (2) inflation, and (3) the Iranian hostage crisis. read more

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Lessons from 85 Years of Movies about Finance

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August 26, 2024 — Over the past 85 years, Hollywood has had much to say about financial markets and institutions – often reflecting a distinctly populist perspective. At a time when both populism and financial volatility are much in evidence, what lessons might these movies hold about regulation?

  1. Wall Street speculators

Start with the Wizard of Oz.  The 1939 movie was a populist allegory about money, though most devotees don’t know it.  The Emerald City represents Wall Street, while the yellow brick road symbolizes the gold standard.   The Cowardly Lion represents William Jennings Bryan, who, when the original book was written in 1900, was an agrarian populist candidate running for president against the monetary austerity of the gold standard and on behalf of western farmers (the Scarecrow) and eastern factory workers (the Tin Man). read more

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