The Economics Nobel Prize and Settler Mortality

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October 25, 2024 — Why have some countries grown rich and others not?   The three winners of this year’s Nobel Prize — Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson and Jim Robinson — offered a one-word answer: Institutions.  Specifically, “inclusive institutions,” which refers to an open society, accountable government, economic freedom, and the rule of law.

To illustrate concretely, the World Bank offers country-by-country indicators of six aspects of institutional quality: control of corruption, voice and accountability, government effectiveness, absence of violence, regulatory quality, and rule of law.  At the top of the rankings are Denmark and Finland.  At the bottom are Equatorial Guinea and South Sudan.  Across a broad set of countries, these indicators are indeed highly correlated statistically with national income per capita. read more

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BEA revision confirms no recession in 2022

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BEA revision confirms no recession in 2022

September 27, 2024 — The NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee is the official  arbiter of recessions in the US economy, even though most other countries use the rule of two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.  Critics sometimes question this practice, arguing, first, that it unnecessarily delays the determination of the turning points and, second, that it substitutes the subjective judgment of a group of unelected elite professors for the objectivity of the two-quarters rule. read more

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What we now know about Jimmy Carter’s presidency

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September 27, 2024 — Jimmy Carter turns 100 on October 1.  His presidency has always been underestimated.  A few of his accomplishments, like the Camp David Accords, are well-known.  But his legacy has been hurt by misperception of some specific developments of those years, 1977-1981.  This is particularly true when viewed in light of new information that did not come out until more recently.

Consider policy in three areas: (1) deregulation, (2) inflation, and (3) the Iranian hostage crisis. read more

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